10 Fantasy Football Lessons You Must Remember for the 2026 Season
Each year me and Alex come up with our top takeaways to remember for the following fantasy season. This helps us remember what worked, what didn’t, how to get better, and reminds us not to buy into certain hype leading into 2026. The goal is to always get better, and steal a championship! We both came up with our top 5 takeaways below.
#1: Let the Data Drive Your Decision Making (Josh)
I am a firm believer in advanced analytics, film, and making informed decisions from the data, but honestly we get in our way too often. Feelings, narratives, hype, and perceptions of players cause more damage than people want to admit. There will always be intuition and variance in start sit decisions, but over time, the data wins more consistently than not. Focus on the film and data to drive your in season and pre-season decision making.
Article #1
Prior to the start of the 2025 season, I wrote two major articles using historical data from the past 8 years to help drive my decision making for this years draft. By following the data, I ended up top 3 in 100% of the leagues I was in, and won a championship in 66% of them. I also won every head to head best ball draft I entered & made it to the 1st round in 66% of my 100K drafts (only to lose to Pitts & T-Law - if you know you know).
The first article was simple, RUNNING BACKS WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS (link). Check it out if you want the deep dive. I also made a Youtube Short you can find here. I actually received push back on this take from many folks around the fantasy community and even a bit from Alex. This was because of the perception around the RB position.
But the reality is this. Not drafting elite running backs early and often causes you to bleed points every single week. I also talked about how the league was just injected with RB talent after how deep the 2025 running back class was. I coined 2025 as the year of the RB, back on August 1st 2025.
Well now that we are at the end of the fantasy season, this is what half-PPR scoring looked like, excluding quarterbacks:
The top four scoring players were running backs
In the top 10: 70% were RBs
In the top 20, 65% were RBs
In the top 30, 63% were RBs
Again, RBs win championships. And honestly, I see this trend continuing into next year. That said, I will let the data drive my decision as I dig into this for 2026.
Article #2
The second article focused on the tight end position and how we are currently in a tight end sweet spot (link). The data showed that fading tight ends in drafts does not hurt nearly as much as it did in previous years. At the same time, hitting on a top three stud tight end still gives you a weekly positional advantage.
That is exactly what we saw in 2025. Players like Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, and George Kittle would have given you roughly a 3-6 point per game edge at the tight end position if they stayed healthy all year. McBride was a true league winning tight end. In my opinion, if you can land the number one scorer at nay position, the draft capital risk is worth it.
A lot of people were burned by Brock Bowers this year, but the risk was still worth the reward had he hit like McBride did. We know his potential, and this just means he will be at a discount next year.
Due to injuries, when you look at total points across the position, there was only about a one point per game difference between TE2 and TE10. That lines up perfectly with the data and trend I wrote about earlier in the year.
At this point, my plan heading into 2026 is the same. I am willing to bet on an elite tight end early if I can get one of the top three. Once they are gone, I am punting the position until late in drafts.
I could go on forever how data needs to continue to drive our decision making, but these are two clear examples. Follow the data, and you will win more than you lose.
#2 The Curse of Too Many Touches Is Real (Alex)
Before the season, we talked about how Saquon Barkley had been absolutely run into the ground the year prior. His 378 total touches meant he was entering the season worn down, and sure enough, that is exactly what happened. He finished with 870 fewer total yards and six fewer touchdowns. Now he still finished as RB13 but it wasn't nearly as productive as the top 5 ADP he cost.
I wanted to see how real this “most touches” curse actually is, so I looked at every player who led the league in touches and how they finished in fantasy the following season. I went all the way back to 2011. That is 14 years of data.
The results were brutal. Only once did the touches leader finish better than RB12 the following year. Once. That was Ezekiel Elliott from 2018 to 2019. Every other season was a massive disappointment.
So what do we do with this information? Enter Christian McCaffrey, who led the league in 2025 with 413 touches (not including the playoffs). That is also the third time he has worn the crown. The previous two times he did it, he got hurt the following season and played just three and four games.
CMC has always been the ultimate roll of the dice, but heading into 2026, the outlook feels worse than usual. Add that he was propped up by 122 targets (equivalent to WR12) and had significantly less explosive rushing yards than normal. He finished at an abysmal 24/30 of the top scoring fantasy RBs. He seems more riskier than usual going into 2026.
Here is the data:
2024 Saquon Barkley, 378 touches, RB13
2023 Christian McCaffrey, 339 touches, RB72
2022 Josh Jacobs, 393 touches, RB27
2021 Najee Harris, 381 touches, RB14
2020 Derrick Henry, 397 touches, RB16
2019 Christian McCaffrey, 403 touches, RB53
2018 Ezekiel Elliott, 381 touches, RB4
2017 Le’Veon Bell, 406 touches, did not play
2016 David Johnson, 373 touches, RB118
2015 Adrian Peterson, 357 touches, RB126
2014 DeMarco Murray, 449 touches, RB17
2013 LeSean McCoy, 366 touches, RB12
2012 Arian Foster, 391 touches, RB44
2011 Maurice Jones-Drew, 386 touches, RB53
#3 The Four Running back Keys to Success in 2026 (Josh)
Since I already talked about running backs earlier, I am sticking with that theme. The reason RBs win championships is simple. Upside wins championships.
Running backs have some of the highest upside in fantasy football because a true RB1 is the primary point scorer for their offense. Wide receivers are competing with three or more pass catchers on every play. Elite running backs do not have that issue. When I am evaluating running backs for 2026, I am focusing on four things:
#1. Opportunity:
When I ran a correlation model, opportunity consistently ranked as one of the strongest drivers of fantasy points for running backs. Specifically offensive snap share and opportunities. That means avoiding committee backfields whenever possible. Running backs need to be on the field to score points. We know this, yet every year we still draft guys like Kenneth Walker, TreVeyon Henderson, Omarion Hampton, and RJ Harvey in the first five rounds despite clear split backfields going into 2025. Some of these worked out due to injuries, but without that, you are guessing every week.
#2 Offensive Line:
This is not something you can perfectly predict due to injuries, but it directly impacts fantasy production across the entire offense, not just running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, James Cook, JK Dobbins, and D’Andre Swift traveled over 2.7 yards before contact per attempt. These teams were the top in the NFL giving their RBs space before contact which results in fantasy points. Even though Swift & Dobbins weren’t elite talents at this point of their career, they were on track to finish as RB15 & 16 respectively before injury or rookies starting to eat into those juicy opportunities.
#3 Entire Offense Expectations
How many points is the team projected to score? Do we expect them to be a top unit? A running back can still be productive in a bad offense, but it caps their ceiling. And ceiling is what we are chasing.
We saw this with Ashton Jeanty, Breece Hall, Quinshon Judkins, and Tony Pollard. All had strong usage, but their weekly upside was capped because their offenses struggled.
The number one correlation among the top five running backs this year was goal line usage. Teams that score more points and move the chains, generate more touches inside the five yard line and more fantasy production.
#4 Overperforming Teams
Finally, identify teams that are projected to overperform offensively. The Colts, Jaguars, and Cowboys were the top three overperformers in 2025. They scored nearly 110 more points on average than preseason projections. That led to Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, and Javonte Williams finishing as top 11 running backs. My way to early prediction is in 2026, the Saints and Giants are one of these teams that overperform their season projections.
Alex and I identified Dallas as a team that would score a ton of points in 2025, but we ignored the running back potential. We locked in on Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, all of whom finished as elite fantasy assets. In hindsight, we should have been just as bullish on Javonte Williams as we were on the other three.
It's simple. Good usage plus a good offense equals a top 15 fantasy running back. Talent be damned.
#4 Coaching and Scheme Matter More Than People Admit (Alex)
It is not always about whether a player is good or bad. Scheme and coaching matter, and sometimes they matter a lot.
The clearest example this year was Liam Coen in Jacksonville. The Buccaneers completely regressed after he left, to the point where their new offensive coordinator was fired midseason. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne thrived in Jacksonville under Liam Coen.
We saw it elsewhere too. George Pickens escaped the slow, conservative Steelers offense and immediately flourished in Dallas’ vertical passing attack. Jacoby Brissett was finally allowed to just let it rip. In Los Angeles, Sean McVay recognized that Davante Adams is the nastiest red zone weapon in football and completely reshaped the offense around him.
We are still early in the coaching carousel, but one name stands out already. Mike McDaniel. Wherever he lands, I am targeting his positional players. Every year he coached in Miami, he produced a top six fantasy player at either wide receiver or running back.
#5 Draft Your Guys (Josh)
Draft your guys. I do not care about ADP or projected auction values.
If you need to reach because you know a player will not make it back to you, do it. If you need to spend five to ten extra dollars in an auction, do it. I have faded players for being five dollars over budget multiple times and got burned every single time.
Fantasy championships are rarely won or lost in the draft. You usually need one to three cornerstone upside pieces. Draft for upside and be aggressive in season. That is how you win championships.
#6 Slow Starts Created Massive Buy Opportunities (Alex)
It was a great year to trade for slow starting studs. A month into the season, there was panic around first and second round picks not producing. Calm managers saw opportunity.
After five weeks, Derrick Henry was RB21. From that point forward, he was RB6.
After seven weeks, Chase Brown was RB31. From that point forward, RB6.
AJ Brown was WR43 through five weeks. Finished as WR8 from there.
Ja’Marr Chase was WR21 through four weeks. Finished as WR3 afterward.
Give your studs some grace. It takes time for things to click.
The only real outlier was Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr. I traded for JJ expecting a bounce back, but that Minnesota offense was just bad.
#7 Early QB Draft Capital Is Overrated (Josh)
Drafting a quarterback early is officially overrated. Unless you are drafting Josh Allen, it makes sense to wait in one quarterback leagues. And honestly, you might be fine doing the same in superflex. My motto is when people zig, you zag. Josh Allen was the only top five quarterback who met expectations in 2025.
The new kickoff rule plays a big role here. People are sleeping on this. After week four, the NFL released data showing:
Starting field position was the best in over two decades
Total yards per game were at a 20 year low
Points per game were top five all time
Passing yards and first downs were at decade lows
Teams are scoring faster, traveling shorter distances, and throwing less. This also reinforces why running backs continue to dominate fantasy.
On top of the new rule, we are also seeing more mobile quarterbacks. Traditional pocket passers like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford are fading. Mobile QBs like Drake Maye, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and others are becoming the norm. Rushing production shrinks the fantasy gap and raises the floor.
This is also blindly ignoring how much better coaches and teams are getting at scheming defenses and adjusting coverages to prevent explosive passing plays.
#8 Rookie Hype Burned People (Alex)
It was a bad year for rookie hype. Some rookies brought value, but there were no true league winners. None of the high ADP rookies lived up to their draft capital.
Jeanty was a bust relative to his second round ADP. Hampton looked great but got hurt. Tetairoa and Emeka finished top 20 at wide receiver but were inconsistent. Harvey and Henderson took a long time to get going. Matthew Golden, Kaleb Johnson, and Jaydon Blue disappeared entirely.
I am not saying do not draft rookies. I am saying do not reach for them. Treat them like dart throws. Wait until the end of the draft and grab a couple. We were spoiled by the 2024 class and the 2025 RB class was deep but they all went into poor situations. Oh, and the 2026 rookie class is supposed to be on the weaker side.
#9 Draft Year Three Through Five Wide Receivers (Josh)
Seven of the top eight fantasy wide receivers were in their third, fourth, or fifth year. Davante Adams was the lone exception at #7. I wanted to see how much of a trend this was, so I looked at the last three years of half PPR wide receiver finishes and focused on years in the league rather than age. In my opinion years in the league better reflect development.
Over the last three years:
60 percent of top 10 WRs were in years 3 - 5
51 percent of top 20 WRs were also in that range
Players who fall into this category in 2026 include Marvin Harrison Jr, Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr, Ricky Pearsall, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake London, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Troy Franklin, Quentin Johnston, and George Pickens.
Hot take. If George Pickens contract gets situated and he doesn’t go insane, he might end up being the WR1 moving into his 5th year in 2026 over CeeDee Lamb.
#10 The Real Advantage Comes From Being Early (Alex)
If everyone is using FantasyPros or the same big subscription services, no one has an edge. Subscribe to the Fantasy Syndicate. Support the smaller platforms that grind all year and get a real advantage over the others. Championships are not won by starting your research in August. They are won by staying locked in year round.
