Fantasy Truth Bomb: RBs Crush WRs in Half-PPR—Here’s the Proof!
This whole deep dive kicked off when I told one of my leagues that full PPR scoring is actually more fair and competitive than half-PPR. Naturally, they all said I was wrong. So I pulled the 2024 data and proved my point. But, that’s a rant for another time.
This article is all about how you are undervaluing running backs in half-PPR formats and you shouldn’t be. Yes, I know league settings vary, but if you're fading RBs in favor of wide receivers, you're leaving serious points on the table. The numbers back it up: RBs reign supreme, and drafting like they don’t is just bad strategy.
Running Backs Win CHAMPIONSHIPS
Overall Key Takeaways:
There’s a ton of info below. Data, charts, and deeper analysis. But if you’d rather skip all that, here are my takeaways:
Running backs have score more fantasy points than WRs from ranks 1 - 20 across both 4 and 8 year spans. Fading RBs over the past four years has cost you: 4.91 PPG (ranks 1-5), 2.8 PPG (ranks 6-10), and 3.7 PPG (ranks 11-20).
Top 5 RBs have performed just as consistently as top 5 WRs in the fantasy playoffs. Over the past two years, they have missed the same number of playoff games. Over the past 4 years they have missed only 4% of playoff games compared to WRs. Top 5 RBs have had a Point Per Game (PPG) higher ceiling and lower floor than WRs in the fantasy championship game over that time.
Running backs get injured at a higher rate than wide receivers. Absolutely no shock here.
The overall fantasy community is not great at ranking RB or WR talent. Take your guys and don’t let rank or ADP dictate all of your decisions. There is an entire section below on ADP and Rank (Article #4). I encourage you to take a look at that data.
Running backs show slightly more consistency in rank, slightly less in ADP, but overperform at a higher rate than wide receivers on average. The fallacy that running backs are less consistent, is just not true.
Article #1:
I looked at half-PPR scoring data from the past eight seasons, 2017 through 2024, comparing the top-30 wide receivers and top-30 running backs each year. That gives us a sample size of 480 players (WR/RB).
The results flip the usual narrative. Most people draft with hopes of wide receivers taking them all the way. The fantasy community treats them like royalty recently. But I’m here to tell you that strategy is wrong. Running backs are king in half-PPR, and the numbers back it up.
Running backs have outscored wide receivers consistently from ranks 1-20 over the past four and eight years on average. I would break down the data below, but you can take a look at it and make your own judgment.
If you are on mobile, you will need to scroll to the right to see the full chart.
| Range | Overall Total | 4-Year Total | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-5 | 1337.5 | 333.9 | RB: 253.4 | WR: -53.1 | RB: 95.5 | RB: 38.1 | RB: 130.7 | RB: 340.9 | RB: 243.5 | RB: 288.5 |
| 6–10 | 337.8 | 189.5 | RB: 168.5 | RB/WR: 0.3 | RB: 42.6 | WR: -21.9 | WR: -31.3 | RB: 120.7 | WR: -29.9 | RB: 88.8 |
| 11–20 | 12.7 | 252.9 | RB: 216 | WR: -59.7 | RB: 67.1 | RB: 29.5 | WR: -187.8 | RB: 14.2 | WR: -33.2 | WR: -33.4 |
| 21–30 | -772 | -205 | WR: -59.1 | WR: -95 | WR: -19 | WR: -31.9 | WR: -218.7 | WR: -152.4 | WR: -103 | WR: -92.9 |
Yes, I get it. The 2024 data weighted the totals heavily in favor of RBs. The fact is, when elite RBs hit, they dominate, score you more points, and give you better odds to win a championship. Period. The numbers are the numbers.
Article #2:
Since we're talking about winning championships, it's only fair we actually look at the data. Let's look at weeks 15, 16, and 17, adjusted to weeks 14, 15, and 16 in the later years.
| Category | Total Points | 4-Year Total | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 RBs PPG Avg | 155.2 | 68.1 | 19.1 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 14.7 | 24 | 19.5 | 19.3 | 24.3 |
| Top 5 WRs PPG Avg | 136.2 | 66.6 | 16.2 | 18 | 12.9 | 19.5 | 20.8 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 14.2 |
First up is PPG (Points Per Game). Overall, the edge goes to RBs. In recent years, it's been more of a back and forth. The overall point difference exist, but it’s small. Over this 4-year window, it's basically a draw.
| Category | Total Games | 4-Year Total | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 RB Games Played | 190 | 95 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| Top 5 WR Games Played | 197 | 99 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 24 |
Second up is injury risk and being on the field. We can't predict injuries, it's part of the game. Personally, I don't draft this way. If a guy gets hurt, that's football. Everyone has their own strategy. With that said, WRs finally win here. There is a 3.55 percent difference in total games played and 4.04 percent over the last four years. To me, that is splitting hairs. But in championship weeks, even a small edge like that could be the difference between a win and a loss.
| Category | Total Points | 4-Year Total | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 RB Championship Week PPG Avg | 164.9 | 76.3 | 20 | 15.1 | 22 | 19.2 | 25.1 | 21.2 | 19.5 | 22.8 |
| Top 5 WR Championship Week PPG Avg | 139 | 67 | 15.7 | 17.6 | 10.1 | 23.6 | 21.4 | 15.8 | 18.6 | 16.2 |
Third and final is the one that actually matters. Championship week. Overall, RBs took this one. If you look at recent trends, it's another back and forth, but RBs had 13 percent more points over that stretch, with more consistent upside and better floors. Once again, RBs win championships. Winner, RB. I’ll save you from anymore gifs.
Article #3:
Next up injury concerns. The chart below pretty much speaks for itself. Running backs miss more games, and that's no surprise given their workload and constant contact. That’s likely a big reason managers have started leaning away from RBs in recent years. Still, if it gave me better odds at winning a championship, I’d take the risk every time. This is literally why we play the game.
Games Missed 2024–2021 RB vs WR
| Group | RB | WR |
|---|---|---|
| 1–5 | 73.00 | 36.00 |
| 6–10 | 30.00 | 37.00 |
| 11–20 | 140.00 | 117.00 |
| 21–30 | 176.00 | 136.00 |
Article #4:
The last thing we will look at is Rank and ADP (Average Draft Position). I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that if you’ve made it this far, you're still team WR, and you’re probably saying to yourself, well they are more consistent. Let’s find out.
For this section, I had to get a little creative with the analysis. I narrowed my scope to the most recent four seasons 2020 - 2024, because lets be honest; the four years prior to that, if you weren’t prioritizing running backs, you were leaving points on the table. This analysis covers 240 players over 4 years.
I focused on two angles:
Draft Rank vs. Final Finish: I wanted to see how close players came to meeting expectations. If someone was drafted as WR1, did they actually finish in that WR1 range? Same for RBs. This gives us insight into positional reliability based on their rank value.
ADP (Average Draft Position) vs. Season-End Value: I stripped the noise by looking strictly at running backs and wide receivers. That means no quarterbacks, tight ends, kickers, or defenses; just the core of fantasy. Comparing where a player was drafted (ADP) against how they finished paints a picture of true value and helps us understand which position gave us more return on investment over those years.
For Rank:
I looked at the top 30 RBs drafted and top 30 WRs drafted.
I put them into four groups; 1-5, 6-11, 11-20, and 21-30.
I used Sleeper Rank from each year as a baseline. I then compared that to their rank finish on the season.
I labeled them Consistent (within rank +/- 4 ), Overperformed (outside of rank +/- 4 but finished better), and Underperformed (outside of rank +/- 4). I felt this was generous as in some situations this could be equivalent of a full round if not more.
For ADP (Average Draft Position):
I looked at the top 30 RBs drafted and top 30 WRs drafted.
I put them into four groups; 1-5, 6-11, 11-20, and 21-30.
I used Sleeper ADP from each year as a baseline. I then compared that to the players finish on the season.
I labeled them Consistent (within +/- 6 spots in ADP), Overperformed (outside of ADP +/- 6 but finished better), and Underperformed (outside +/- 6 spots in ADP). I felt an entire round was more than fair.
Key Takeaways:
There are a lot of charts and information below. You are welcome to look at it, but to make it easy for you, these were my findings.
The overall fantasy community is not great at ranking talent. Take your guys and don’t let rank or ADP dictate all of your decisions. See the consistency data below if you don’t believe me.
Running backs show slightly more consistency in rank, slightly less in ADP, but overperform at a higher rate on average:
Rank: RBs: 30% consistent (36/120), 20% overperform (24/120), 50% underperform (60/120).
Rank: WRs: 28% consistent (34/120), 17% overperform (20/120), 55% underperform (66/120).
ADP: RBs: 15.8% consistent (19/120), 30.0% overperform (36/120), 54.2% underperform (65/120)
ADP: WRs: 20.8% consistent (25/120), 26.7% overperform (32/120), 52.5% underperform (63/120)
Group 11 - 21 showed the highest rate of consistency and overproducing.
Rank: 57.5% for RBs (14/40 consistent, 9/40 overperform); 47.5% for WRs (14/40 consistent, 5/40 overperform).
ADP: 52.5% RBs: (13/40 overperform, 8/40 consistent); WRs: 45% (9/40 overperform, 9/40 consistent)
Group 1 - 5 & 6-10: WRs are slightly more consistent & RBs slightly over perform
Rank: 47.5% for RBs (13/40 consistent, 6/40 overperform); 47.5% for WRs (15/40 consistent, 4/40 overperform).
ADP: 42.5% for RBs (8/40 consistent, 9/40 overperform); 52.5% for WRs (12/40 consistent, 9/40 overperform).
2024 - 2021 Data Overview
2024 - Year of the Running Back
I am going to start each year with the average ADP of the position, to see how fantasy managers favored one over the other when drafting.
2024 Average Draft ADP RB vs WR
| Range | RB | WR |
|---|---|---|
| 1–5 | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| 6–10 | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| 11–20 | 38.10 | 28.00 |
| 21–30 | 61.70 | 43.30 |
In 2024, everyone favored the wide receiver position across all tiers. Which makes sense after how the 2023 season went.
For 2024 Rank , we were consistent at the top. As we continue down the chart, we see that RBs were more consistent and overperformed at the same rate or better rate than WRs. WR’s unperformed their ADP at a staggering rate in 2024 outside the top guys. This aligns with the RB dominance we saw.
For 2024 ADP difference. RBs dominated at almost every level. The only exception was 1-5 by one player…but lets be honest, Kyle Shanahan lied to everyone until week 1 about CMC. I am calling it a wash.
2023 - Year of the Wide Receiver
2023 Average Draft ADP RB vs WR
| Range | RB | WR |
|---|---|---|
| 1–5 | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| 6–10 | 18.00 | 15.80 |
| 11–20 | 33.30 | 29.40 |
| 21–30 | 51.90 | 51.30 |
Overall wide receivers were still favored during the draft by the fantasy community, but it was no where near as drastic as in 2024.
For 2023 Rank, overall wide receivers were more consistent at the higher tiers, which ended up netting them more overall points. This is reflected in the Article #1 data.
For 2023 ADP, this again supports the point totals we saw in Article 1. RBs were very boom or bust this year and underperformed as a unit. I am sure a lot of people got burned.
2022 - Year of the Overvalued RB & Undervalued WR
2022 Average ADP RB vs WR
| Range | RB | WR |
|---|---|---|
| 1–5 | 3.80 | 10.60 |
| 6–10 | 12.40 | 24.40 |
| 11–20 | 30.10 | 42.30 |
| 21–30 | 63.90 | 63.00 |
In 2022, running backs were grossly overvalued pretty significantly in the draft. The top 12 running backs went inside the first 2 rounds; but at wide receiver only the first 5 went in the first 2 rounds.
For 2022 Rank, we had a dead even split in the top 5. Group 6-10 dominated at the WR position. Group 11-20 the RB’s shined. In the later rank RBs underperformed at a staggering rate.
For 2022 ADP, this was the best year for drafters as a whole and being consistent with ADP. Which makes sense, because running backs were favored during the draft; however, this made them consistent and not overperform. Wide receivers significantly overperformed because of how they were drafted.
2021 - Year of Insanely Overvalued Running Backs
2024 Average ADP RB vs WR
| Range | RB | WR |
|---|---|---|
| 1–5 | 3.60 | 14.40 |
| 6–10 | 9.40 | 23.20 |
| 11–20 | 24.60 | 36.50 |
| 21–30 | 50.40 | 52.00 |
I had to triple check the ADP at a couple of different sources because almost the entire first round was running backs. They dominated the top 30 picks.
For 2021 Rank, outside the one player difference in the 1-5, there was an overall underperformance across the board. Even though RBs were insanely overvalued at ADP, they still overperformed at a solid rate and showed consistency within their rank.
For 2021 ADP, running backs were overvalued. What I found interesting in this chart is that even though they came in overvalued, some still found a way to overperform their ADP. Either way WRs won the value this year because of the overvalue.
Wrap Up
The league was just injected with an extremely talented class of RBs. My questions to you is…do you think the fantasy RBs will do better, worse, or the same in 2025? Don’t sleep on the running back position!
2025: THE YEAR OF THE RB
My Future Plan
I’ve got a future article coming that dives into 2025 ADP and highlights over and undervalued players based on historical trends and their current ADP. I’m also working on a QB and WR prediction model using analytics from the past 3 years and over 800 data points. If that sounds interesting, feel free to follow us on Twitter, Instagram, or YouTube. It’d mean a lot. If not, no worries at all. Just appreciate you being here and checking it out.
Now Go Steal A Championship!
