2025 1st Round Deep Dive & Dynasty Rookie Rankings
The 2025 NFL Draft is done, and it’s time to break down what the first round means for dynasty fantasy football. I’ve listed my rookie rankings for superflex and 1QB leagues below, with detailed analysis for every first-round pick and my logic behind the ranking. You’ll notice “td” next to some names which stands for team-dependent. These are guys that I felt have similar values. Taking the person who best fits your roster needs to give you flexibility. You will also notice that not all ranks are filled in. This will be shared when I do my 2nd round breakdown.
| Pick | Superflex | QB1 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | Cam Ward (td) | Ashton Jeanty |
| 1.02 | Ashton Jeanty | Tetairoa McMillan (td) |
| 1.03 | Tetairoa McMillan (td) | Omarion Hampton (td) |
| 1.04 | Omarion Hampton (td) | Travis Hunter |
| 1.05 | Travis Hunter | Emeka Egbuka |
| 1.06 | Emeka Egbuka | Colston Loveland (td) |
| 1.07 | Colston Loveland (td) | Cam Ward (td) |
| 1.08 | ||
| 1.09 | ||
| 1.10 | Matthew Golden | Matthew Golden |
| 2.01 | Tyler Warren (td) | Tyler Warren (td) |
| 2.02 | Jaxson Dart (td) | |
| 2.03 | ||
| 2.04 | ||
| 2.05 | ||
| 2.06 | ||
| 2.07 | ||
| 2.08 | Jaxson Dart (td) |
Player Breakdowns
Cam Ward, Quarterback: Tennessee Titans, Pick 1: Superflex 1.01 / 1QB 1.07
Brian Callahan landed his quarterback, and I’m excited about Ward’s fantasy potential in Tennessee. Of all the QB-needy teams, I thought this was one of the best spots. Callahan, formerly the Bengals’ offensive coordinator, loves 11-personnel sets to maximize the passing game. Last year, despite rough QB play, the Titans ran 11 personnel 68% of the time, ranking top 13 in the NFL. I expect that to increase in Callahan’s second year as head coach. He has at least two seasons to fully install his system before any coaching shakeup, which is huge for a rookie like Ward.
Ward posted the best TD-to-INT ratio among college QBs with over 3,100 passing yards last season. That matters, as it shows he can protect the ball and sustain drives. For context, 2023 QBs with similar stats included Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and JJ McCarthy. It’s not a perfect predictor, but it’s encouraging. Ward was the top-graded QB in his class, ranked fourth in big-time throw rate and 10th in passing under pressure. At Miami, he handled multiple reads and anticipated receiver routes all year. The downside? He’s not a big runner. He can escape the pocket if necessary but don’t expect much rushing upside. His fantasy value hinges on his arm. I don’t see him as a consistent top-5 QB, but I hope he becomes a reliable QB2 option in fantasy for his career. My expectations are him floating between QB10 and QB20 as he progresses as a quarterback.
One reason I have Ward as the first overall pick is because in superflex leagues, quarterbacks hold value very well. Look at JJ McCarthy who is still a top 50 dynasty asset even though he didn't play a single snap last year. If your superflex team needs a QB, Ward’s the clear 1.01. Or if you think you can get a better QB for the 1.01 in your league, then make the trade. This pick is all about value and team need.
Travis Hunter, WR/CB: Jacksonville Jaguars, Pick 2: Superflex 1.05 / 1QB 1.04
The Jaguars’ trade-up for Hunter was a brilliant move. They snagged the draft’s true 1.01 at a 1.02 price. A steal compared to past 1.01 trades. I’m a value guy, and while Jacksonville paid a lot, they came out ahead for a talent like Hunter.
That said, I’m tempering expectations for Hunter in fantasy, unless you’re in an IDP league, where he’s arguably the undisputed 1.01. Brian Thomas Jr. has already proven he’s an elite WR1, so Hunter slots in as Jacksonville’s WR2. That limits his targets and upside. Plus, the Jags have a glaring hole in their secondary. It makes me skeptical they wouldn't want to fill that gap with the best CB in the draft. Regardless of how you look at it, there is significant risk involved in his fantasy production.
I have heard folks compare him to Tee Higgins as a WR2, but Trevor Lawrence isn’t Joe Burrow, and the Jaguars aren’t the Bengals. Cincinnati had four years to build with their offensive core and pass heavy scheme, something Hunter won’t have right away. Tee also doesn't play defense. The Jags literally still don’t know how they are going to navigate Hunter’s unique ability to play both positions. This could even be fluid during the season based on opponent. I think DeVonta Smith is a better comparison for his fantasy outlook until we actually know what his playing time as a wide receiver looks like. From a dynasty perspective, you also have to look at health concerns. Let’s assume he does play both sides of the ball 100% like he wants, one year of playing time is now equivalent to two years for someone like Tet or Hampton. Another risk. We want to play the long game here.
Could Hunter become the WR1? Maybe, but for now, he’s a WR2 with Brian Thomas Jr. in the way, and the uncertainty of his defensive role caps his ceiling. That risk drops him down my board and why he isn’t my 1.02, even though his talent is unquestionable.
Ashton Jeanty, Running Back:
Las Vegas Raiders: Pick 6: Superflex 1.02 / 1QB 1.01
Jeanty’s a household name, a beast RB whose top-10 draft capital boosts his future success. He faces no competition for touches, Pete Carroll’s run-focus scheme is perfect for him, and the Raiders added two offensive linemen in the third round to pave the way. I’m projecting 260 to 300 carries and 30 to 50 receptions, landing Jeanty as a top-5 RB in 2025 with a bright long-term outlook.
My only concern is the Raiders’ offensive line, which isn’t great despite the new additions. Can Jeanty overcome it? Absolutely, but it’s worth mentioning. In 1QB, he’s the no-brainer 1.01. In superflex, unless you’re insanely desperate for a QB, he’s your guy. If you hold the 1.01 people are giving up a king's ransom just to be able to draft him. Always field offers, but don't get cute.
Tetairoa McMillan, Wide Receiver:
Carolina Panthers, Pick 8: Superflex 1.03A / 1QB 1.02A
Tetairoa McMillan has a golden opportunity to be Carolina’s WR1 from day one. The Panthers desperately need receiver help, and Tet checks every box: analytics, athleticism, and his film all point to a future NFL stud. He has all the tools to dominate at the NFL level.
Bryce Young showed promise late last season, and the Panthers seem to be finding their groove. Adam Thielen’s nearing the end of his career but can mentor Tet, while Jalen Coker (sorry Coke heads), caps out as a WR2 or WR3 despite his potential. Hunter Renfrow’s signing doesn’t move the needle for Tet but could crowd Coker.
I’m all about building dynasty rosters around young WRs over RBs, which is why Tet’s my 1.03A in superflex and 1.02A in 1QB. At Arizona, he was a monster, breaking out as a freshman by stealing touches from 4th round pick Jacob Cowing and owning the WR1 role by sophomore year. The fantasy community’s been undervaluing him, but his top-10 draft capital signals big things.
My one worry is Carolina’s low WR route volume last year. Xavier Legette led the team with just 417 routes, thanks to receiver rotations, Young’s early struggles, and Chuba Hubbard carrying the offense. But a top-10 pick like Tet will get his opportunities. I expect him to start immediately and run 500 - 530 or more routes. Over the past decade, top-10 rookie WRs with at least 299 routes averaged 1.91 yards per route run, putting Tet on pace for 1,000-plus yard season. I hope he’ll exceed that as a rookie but this gives us an idea of what he is capable of stepping into this role. If your team needs a WR, he’s your pick.
Colston Loveland, Tight End: Chicago Bears, Pick 10: Superflex 1.07 / 1QB 1.06
Loveland’s a fantastic talent, but he’s stepping into a crowded Bears offense. A young QB and a dynamic head coach are positives, but he’s competing with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Cole Kmet for targets. We saw this with Sam LaPorta in Detroit last year; too many options can limit a TE’s fantasy output. We saw the opposite with Brock Bowers, no-options can lead to insane production. We make it harder than we need to sometimes. Loveland’s a top-5 dynasty TE long-term, but don’t expect a Brock Bowers or even LaPorta level rookie breakout.
Based on Ben Johnson’s play-calling history and Kmet’s presence, I project Loveland at 400-450 routes. First-round TEs with 200 or more routes over the past decade averaged 1.55 yards per route run as rookies, translating to about 600 - 700 receiving yards for Loveland. Inside the 10-yard line, Johnson fed LaPorta four TDs in both 2023 and 2024. I expect this to be similar in 2025 if not better. Kmet could steal some of those TD’s but D’Andre Swift is no Gibbs or Monty. I see Loveland as a TE5 to TE10 as a rookie, offering solid production now and a bright future. If you need a TE, he’s who I would be riding with first at the position.
Tyler Warren, Tight End: Indianapolis Colts, Pick 14: Superflex 2.01 / 1QB 2.01
Warren’s another elite TE prospect, and some argue he’s better than Loveland. On tape, he’s a better receiver and blocker, and if I ranked purely on talent, he's my guy. But his situation in Indy raises significant concerns. The Colts utilize a run-heavy scheme, and Anthony Richardson’s just can't throw. I’m not sure how else to put it. Michael Pittman is the X receiver, Adonai Mitchell’s is developing, and Josh Downs is a stellar slot receiver. Downs presence limits Warren’s role in the slot. I don’t see Indy benching a top-15 slot guy for a rookie TE. Because of this, I’m worried Warren won’t get enough quality targets.
If Richardson starts all season, I project Warren at 350 - 400 routes, equating to about 620 yards at the 1.55 yards per route run threshold we set earlier. Jonathan Taylor’s dominance inside the 10-yard line, with top-5 RB attempts in 2024, also caps Warren’s TD upside, possibly pushing him outside the top-10 TEs in fantasy as a rookie. The talent is there, but the landing spot is atrocious.
With all that said, I’m targeting Colts pass-catchers in dynasty. I think Indy moves on from Richardson eventually, boosting Warren’s long-term value. My lower original ranking of him reflects a potential value dip during the year, making him a buy-low candidate later. If you draft him, patience is key.
Emeka Egbuka, Wide Receiver: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pick 19: Superflex 1.06 / 1QB 1.05
Egbuka broke out as a sophomore, holding his own against Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2022, trailing by just 100 yards and four TDs. An ankle injury in 2023 hurt his draft stock in a strong WR class, so he returned in 2024, competing with 2027 projected top-10 pick Jeremiah Smith (remember this name and start collecting 2027 1st now). Egbuka still posted over 1,000 yards, 10 TDs, class-leading YAC efficiency, and a 2.51 yards per route run. My only critique is his class low 7.5 yard average depth of target, but his film shows he’s not just a short-yardage guy.
Tampa’s a great landing spot, even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin signed through 2026. Evans is 31, Godwin’s 29. The Bucs are planning ahead. Egbuka starts as a WR3 but could climb to WR2 by season’s end. Jalen McMillan’s shown flashes, but a first-round WR pick signals Egbuka is the future, not McMillan.
Egbuka is tied to a pass-heavy offense with a weak defense, as Tampa drafted four straight defenders after him, I project 400 to 450 routes. Rookie WRs in the past decade picked 11 to 32 average 1.65 yards per route run, so Egbuka’s looking at 655 to 750 yards. Think Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Seattle in 2023 with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett ahead of him. If Godwin’s not 100% early, Egbuka could break out sooner. I look at him as a year-two breakout candidate with WR1 upside this year. It’s better to be early than late which is why I have him higher on my board.
Omarion Hampton, Running Back: Los Angeles Chargers, Pick 22: Superflex 1.03B / 1QB 1.02B
Hampton’s an extremely talented RB who landed in a perfect spot. Hampton put up a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.78 out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 43 out of 1909 RB from 1987 to 2025. Hampton, Harvey, and Jeanty were the only RBs in this class to produce at an exceptionally high level in 2023 and 2024. He also is one of the few capable receiving backs in the class which increases his upside. Check out how he stacks up to the eligible 2025 RB class.
| Statistic | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Yards After Contact | 1st | 2nd |
| Explosive Plays | 10th | 3rd |
| Missed Tackles Forced | 6th | 4th |
| Break Away Yards | 5th | 5th |
| Rushing Yards | 3rd | 2nd |
| Rushing TDs | 6th | 12th |
| Receiving Yards | 16th | 3rd |
The dude is seriously elite, and if Jeanty didn’t go for 2,600 yards and 29 TD’s this year, Hampton would be the undisputed RB1 taken in the top 10. But here we are with the Chargers getting an absolute steal of an elite talent at the 22nd pick. This running back class is deep.
Now let’s dig into his situation. Jim Harbaugh has a track record of winning games, building the trenches, and running one running back into the ground once he has his guy. Proof of this is 20 years or two decades of coaching.
Stanford - Toby Gerhart
49ers - Frank Gore
Michigan - Hassan Haskins & Blake Corum
Chargers - JK Dobbins (was on track to see 270 carries before injury)
Najee Harris is on a one-year, $5.2 million deal, but Harbaugh’s first-round investment in Hampton screams long-term starter. While I expect him to be the undisputed lead back by midseason, lets hypothetically say they split carries early 60-40 favoring Hampton, and then shift to 70-30 midseason. Based on last year’s Charger rushing volume, excluding QB and WR runs, that’s about 245 carries and 32 targets, landing him in the RB10 to RB20 range as a rookie.
In year two, it should be the Omarion Hampton show in LA if not sooner. He’s my 1.03B in superflex; if you need a RB, take him over Tet. Both are close in value, and it’s about team fit. What more can you ask for in a running back prospect? Elite college production, run heavy scheme, great QB, and a coach known for winning while focusing on the offensive line. It’s a goldmine.
Matthew Golden, Wide Receiver: Green Bay Packers, Pick 23: Superflex 1.10 / 1QB 1.10
Green Bay broke a 20-year drought by taking a skill player in the first round. Essentially putting the world on notice by saying MATTHEW GOLDEN IS OUR GUY. The Packers needed a WR1 for Jordan Love, and this pick makes a statement. People aren’t realizing how big of a deal this is for Green Bay. Golden’s not a perfect prospect, with a 0.92 yards per route run vs. man coverage and 0.31 YAC efficiency, but the analytics and film show he can make explosive plays, can pick apart zone coverage, and moves the chains.
I understand the stigma that the Packers WR room is crowded but lets actually dig into it. Over the past two to three seasons, whether it was due to injury or production, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks just have not stepped up to be the alpha. Jayden Reed has been good, but he plays predominantly out of the slot. They are looking for their alpha X receiver. Tucker Kraft at TE led the Packers in routes run last year, which shows you the desperation they have at WR. Golden played 75% of his college snaps out wide, and has a real shot of being WR1 right away.
If he doesn’t separate from the group of WR’s early, I see 400 routes and about 660 yards using the 1.65 yards per route run. If he claims the WR1 role immediately, 500 to 550 routes could push him in the 1000 yard receiving range, especially if his yard per route run efficiency beats the rookie average.
While I am worried about his overall skills translation to the NFL, redzone TD production, and him getting lost in the WR mix, the upside is too juicy to pass up late in the first round. Golden being attached to a young Jordan Love for the next 5+ years as WR1…JUICY. It is a risk reward play that I feel it fits great with a team that probably just won the championship last year. This is why I like Golden at the 1.10.
Jaxson Dart, Quarterback:
New York Giants, Pick 25: Superflex 2.02, 1QB 2.08
Everything I love about Cam Ward’s situation, I’m cautious about with Dart. Ward’s first-round pick capital and probable stable coaching give him a safety net; Dart has significantly less security. Giants GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll are on the hot seat. If the team struggles in 2025, a 2026 regime change could hurt Dart’s development. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston are there to win games now and buy Dart time. This is what he needs. Time to develop. I hope he doesn’t play this year. If he doesn’t see the field, this means the Giants are winning enough that administration and fans aren’t pressuring Daboll to start Dart before he is ready.
Of rookie QBs in this class, not many can say they have great young offensive weapons to grow with. He has an elite WR1 Malik Nabers, solid WR2 Wan’Dale Robinson (it's true whether you believe it or not), young RB Tyrone Tracy who just started playing the position three years ago, and rookie Cam Skattebo to help. The offensive line though, is a bottom-tier unit, even with Andrew Thomas back.
Dart’s tape is strong, with 52 TDs to 11 INTs over two years, top grades in big-time throws, ADOT, and only behind Cam Ward in first read PFF’s passer rating. His downside? Ole Miss offense leaned on one-read throws, and his 60% second-read success rate was 63rd in FBS. This shows he needs work. I believe if he can get a year to learn Daboll’s system, this could set him up for success in fantasy and the NFL. Oh and did I mention he rushed for 1,500 yards during his starting QB career and was top 4 in scramble rate in 2024. From a fantasy perspective, this is a big deal. Historically, this correlates with between 2-5 rushing points a game. If he can become a somewhat competent passer, I could see him holding Drake Maye QB value by year two. Due to his rushing ability, he has more upside than Cam Ward.
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