Tight End Dominance Has Faded: How ADP and PPG Trends Reveal a Shifting Landscape - You Might Be Drafting Wrong!
One of the members of the Syndicate (shout out Nick!) asked me about drafting tight ends early, mainly because of the positional and point advantage it gives. I thought I already knew the answer. After all, the tight end position has historically been dominated by one or two elite players at the very top.
But I wanted to be sure. So I went back and did a full deep dive into four years of data (2021–2024) to see what the numbers actually said. All I can say is that, I’m glad I did, because it completely changed my perspective on tight ends, and how I’m approaching drafts going forward.
If you want my full Top 10 Tight End Rankings for 2025, I’ve got a video breakdown you can watch here. And if you want our fantasy draft kit for free, you can grab it here!
The Process
I looked at 80 different tight ends (top 20 each year in half-PPR scoring from 2021-2024). Then I ran the stats, correlations, and regressions to see what really matters when it comes to predicting TE performance, ADP vs total point finish, total points finish vs rank, and PPG TE advantage.
For those who like the data, please feel free to go through the entire article. But for those who just want the cliff notes, here you go.
Key Takeaways
We Are In the Tight End Sweet Spot!
Due to the injection of TE talent LaPorta, McBride, Bowers, Kraft (now Warren & Loveland) paired with the old elite guys still being productive Kittle, Kelce, Andrews, Njoku, Hockenson, and Engram. The era of one or two super-elite TEs at the top has faded.
The Stats That Matter Most for Fantasy TE Success
Receiving yards, target opportunity, and red-zone volume are the foundation for elite tight ends in fantasy. Volume is king for elite TEs. Duh right?
Red zone targets are more predictive of fantasy scoring on a per-target basis, but open-field targets make up a larger share of total fantasy production because of their higher volume.
The most predictive stats for half-PPR points came down to: receiving yards, receptions/targets, and red-zone targets/receptions.
How Predictive Are They?
Individually, each has an R value of around 0.75, or about 56% predictive of fantasy points on its own.
Statistically, the p-value was near 0 across the board, so this is not random noise.
Combined, running a multiple regression, these stats delivered an R² of 0.72; together, they explain about 72% of fantasy production.
ADP vs Fantasy Points
There is a correlation between ADP and TE finish.
Back in 2021 & 2022, taking a TE in the top 5 gave you a 70% chance of finishing with a top 5 TE.
But in 2023 & 2024, that number fell to 50%, basically a coin flip. The tight end talent level across the board is much better than it was in the past.
The Big One: The Flattening of TE Dominance
The TE dominance curve has flattened drastically since 2021.
Taking TE1 used to give you as much as a 7-9 PPG advantage over the TE10. That wide margin no longer exists. In the last two seasons, TE1s now only give you about half of that advantage (4-5 PPG vs TE10).
The positional advantage still exists, but its no longer just TE1, its now the TE1 - TE3 tier that matters the most. Over the past two years, the difference between TE1 and TE3 has been less than 1 PPG, showing just how flat the elite tier has become.
Draft Strategy Impact
Drafting a top 3 TE is still critical if you don’t want to bleed points weekly.
But, based on ADP vs finish, you now have a greater chance (about 50%) of landing an elite TE later, making “punt TE” builds more viable than in the past.
The TE cliff isn’t as steep, and roster construction can be significantly more flexible when drafting.
My Deep Dive
Article #1: Fantasy Success
The first thing I wanted to do was establish what stats really predict a tight end’s fantasy success. I defined success as total fantasy points. I pulled a combination of 15 major and advanced stats for each TE over the past four years, which came out to around 1,200 data points.
The first test was simple correlation. How strongly does each stat line up with fantasy points? A correlation of 0 means no relationship, while 1.0 means a perfect relationship. Here is what came out on top:
Red Zone Targets vs Fantasy Points: R = 0.758
Receptions vs Fantasy Points: R = 0.753
Receiving Yards vs Fantasy Points: R = 0.745
Total Targets vs Fantasy Points: R = 0.730
On their own, each of these explains roughly 55-57% of fantasy scoring variance. And the p-values for all of them were essentially zero, meaning there’s no chance this happened randomly. These are statistically undeniable predictors.
Combining the Stats
Next, I wanted to know, if we put these stats together, how much can we actually explain. That’s where multiple regression comes in, it tests the combined predictive power of multiple stats at once.
When I combined receptions, receiving yards, and red zone targets as the 3 highest individually correlated stats, the result was R² = 0.72.
In plain English, those three stats together explain 72% of tight end fantasy scoring.
The regression also gives us weights, how many fantasy points each stat is worth in the model:
Receiving Yards = 1.6 fantasy Points
Receptions = 0.44 fantasy points
Red Zone Targets = 0.05 fantasy points
Open Field vs Red Zone Targets
I also wanted to compare open field targets (outside the redzone) with red zone targets. When I ran them together, the regression showed:
Open Field Targets = 2.7 fantasy points
Red Zone Targets = .49 fantasy points
This doesn’t mean red zone work isn’t important. Per target, red zone is better because of the TD upside. But when you look at a full season, volume outside the redzone dominates simply because there are so many more of them. In other words, volume is king.
This actually played out with Sam LaPorta in 2024. His red zone usage stayed the same, and some TD regression hit (expected after scoring 10 the year before). The real difference was in the open field. With Jameson Williams healthy, LaPorta’s open field targets dropped by 40. That cut directly into his fantasy point production. Going into 2025, if either Jamo or St.Brown misses time, LaPorta becomes a smash buy candidate because those open field opportunities.
While this is an example, the takeaway is that your elite TE’s need to have a direct path to target dominance in the open field not just the redzone. Example 2: T.J. Hockenson has this potential with Addison suspended the first 4 weeks. But with both JJ and Addison on the field, that opportunity he once had, vanishes. Potential sell target after week 4?
Takeaway
This statistical deep dive is far from perfect, but it highlights what really matters. Yards, receptions, and red zone involvement explain most of a TE’s fantasy scoring, while overall volume outside the red zone can swing year-to-year outcomes.
As a fantasy manager, those are the key levers to watch, and they are the stats that should shape both preseason rankings and in-season adjustments.
Article #2: ADP vs TE Finish
Next, I wanted to look at the relationship between average draft position (ADP) and fantasy TE finish through 17 weeks. Here’s what I found:
What This Means
In 2021 - 2022, drafting a top-5 TE gave you a 70% chance of finishing with a top-5 TE. This was a strong return on investment when taking TEs early in drafts. Fitting the long-standing narrative, draft a TE early and you’ll gain a positional advantage.
But in 2023 - 2024, that reliability fell to just 50%, basically a coin flip. Yes, there’s still some correlation between ADP and fantasy finish, but the safety net of drafting early has eroded.
The advantage still exists, but it’s less predictable.
Article #3: TE PPG Drop-Offs & The Flattening!
After looking at how ADP has lined up with fantasy finishes, I wanted to get back to Nicks original question. The positional scoring advantage at tight end. It’s one thing to say drafting early hasn’t been as reliable, but that doesn’t tell us if the position itself has shifted in value.
For years, the case for taking a tight end early was simple. If you landed the guy, you had a weekly cheat code. The gap between TE1 and the rest of the field wasn’t just an edge, it was a sledgehammer. You were getting points at a position nobody else could touch.
To do that, I first looked at the total points and then the eventual break down of the points per game (PPG) drop off from TE1 through TE10 across the past four seasons (2021 - 2024). First, was total points:
While looking at the chart, three things immediately jump out:
In 2021-2022, the difference between TE1 and everyone else was massive.
Even the gap between TE2 and the rest was substantial.
The tight end total points difference in recent years looks much more flat.
So I went further and isolated the points per game (PPG) difference from TE1 through TE10. Focusing on 2021 - 2022 and 2023 - 2024 separately.
2021 - 2022 TE PPG Difference
On average TE1 gave you a 3.5 PPG advantage over TE2.
TE1 to TE10, that advantage was massive, 7-9 PPG on average between the years.
2023 - 2024 TE PPG Difference
The TE1 advantage dropped to about 4-5 PPG over TE10, nearly cutting the point advantage in half.
The average difference between TE1, TE2, and TE3 was less than 1 PPG.
Removing TE1 from 2021 & 2022
The last thing I wanted to do was remove TE1 in 2021 (Andrews) and 2022 (Kelce) because it appeared to be skewing the data. When I removed those two outliers, the story was clear.
2021 - 2024 PPG Difference (TE1 removed from 2021 & 2022)
The flattening actually started in 2022, but Kelce’s massive 250 point performance disguised it.
The New Reality
While things might shift as time goes on, we are currently in a tight end sweet spot. The talent pool has deepened, thanks to studs like LaPorta, McBride, Bowers, and now Loveland and Warren. The older elite tight ends still exists, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, Njoku, Engram, and T.J. Hockenson. The era of one or two super-elite TEs at the top has faded. Instead, were seeing multiple players delivering fantasy-relevant production, with the gap spread more evenly across the position.
Key Takeaways
Drafting a top 3 TE is still critical, if you don’t want to lose substantial points weekly.
It’s no longer just TE1 that matters, its the TE1 - TE3 tier.
The ADP vs finish data shows you now have about a 50% chance of landing a top TE even if you wait.
Roster construction is even more flexible. You can still pay up early for security, or can hunt value later knowing the “TE cliff” isn’t nearly as steep as it once was.
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